Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
